Sat, Apr 2, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 39 | 16 | 01 | 1 | 531 |
| TBL | 211 | 218 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:32TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Nick Paul · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 8:57MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Rem Pitlick · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:34TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 13:56MTLCorey SchuenemanAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 15:50MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 19:44TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 2:18MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Ryan Poehling, Tyler Pitlick · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 2. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 4. MTL Rem Pitlick stopped
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 6. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:27TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:23TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:32MTLCole Caufield: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:12MTLJordan Harris: Playing without a helmet2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17MTLRyan Poehling: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Suzuki – Caufield14:50
xG 0.88–0.55 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Byron – Armia – Dvorak12:30
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Evans10:57
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Poehling – Ylonen6:40
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Barron16:39
xG 0.95–0.68 (59%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Savard – Romanov3:15
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Romanov – Schueneman13:01
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli6:07
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Colton – Hagel12:11
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare9:30
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Point5:25
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Rutta17:22
xG 0.83–0.86 (49%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Foote12:52
xG 0.53–0.66 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Cernak – Sergachev17:05
xG 0.60–0.76 (44%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).