Sat, Apr 2, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 212 | 410 | 628 |
| PHI | 011 | 213 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:56PHIKevin HayesAssists: Ivan Provorov, Oskar Lindblom · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 10:23TORWayne SimmondsAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:32TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Mark Giordano, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 14:33PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 7:41TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 11:43TORPierre EngvallSHGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 12:23PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Patrick Brown, Zack MacEwen · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 13:47TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 15:49TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander · Snap, 0.18 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:05TORIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:47PHIIvan Provorov: Holding2 min
- P3 9:50TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P3 17:16TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:16PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev4:24
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Blackwell – Abruzzese6:27
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev3:15
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews2:27
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin18:05
xG 1.02–0.77 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Brodie – Holl16:06
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Giordano – Liljegren13:54
xG 0.38–0.79 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Lindblom – Konecny10:40
xG 1.02–0.42 (71%)attempts 16–14goals 2–2
- Atkinson – Cates – Farabee12:50
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Brown – MacEwen8:52
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost10:09
xG 0.50–0.92 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York15:45
xG 1.39–0.92 (60%)attempts 16–18goals 2–2
- Sanheim – Provorov2:35
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:42
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).