Sat, Apr 2, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 6, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 26 | 14 | 315 | 625 |
| CGY | 216 | 012 | 215 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54STLRobert ThomasAssists: Justin Faulk, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:47CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 12:49CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Mikael Backlund, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 17:31STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 13:35STLJustin FaulkAssists: David Perron, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 10:43CGYNoah HanifinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 18:04STLNathan WalkerAssists: Robert Thomas, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:05STLIvan BarbashevENGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–3
- P3 19:22CGYDillon DubeAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
- P3 19:55STLBrandon SaadENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 15:35CGYChris Tanev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40STLJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Barbashev2:50
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Walker – Toropchenko2:34
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Toropchenko5:47
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad11:43
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Parayko2:39
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Rosen4:16
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola3:16
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Ritchie – Carpenter8:44
xG 1.63–0.82 (67%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:37
xG 0.57–0.40 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Lewis – Coleman – Dube10:36
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane13:22
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov14:24
xG 1.29–0.23 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson18:59
xG 1.51–1.36 (53%)attempts 27–21goals 2–2
- Stone – Tanev18:51
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).