Sun, Apr 3, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 214 | 17 | 18 | 429 |
| NJD | 010 | 15 | 215 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 14:00NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 14:58NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Adam Pelech, Kyle Palmieri · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 15:45NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Damon Severson, Janne Kuokkanen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 5:32NJDTomas TatarAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 14:53NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:54NJDNico HischierAssists: Dawson Mercer, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:25NYINoah Dobson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:39NJDJesper Boqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36NJDP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:36NJDP.K. Subban: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:36NJDP.K. Subban: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 4:36NJDP.K. Subban: Aggressor10 min
- P2 4:36NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:03NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:13NYICasey Cizikas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Palmieri – Pageau11:04
xG 1.00–0.83 (54%)attempts 8–15goals 3–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston8:00
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom9:36
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:12
xG 0.06–0.96 (6%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:46
xG 1.12–0.64 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Greene – Hutton10:16
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Dobson16:36
xG 0.14–1.37 (9%)attempts 7–22goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Zacha – Bastian2:41
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Boqvist – Sharangovich5:15
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Tatar – Johnsson – Mercer6:38
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Tatar – Bratt – Hischier3:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler4:23
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Severson – Graves8:18
xG 0.64–0.38 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Subban – Smith8:12
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).