Sun, Apr 3, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Minnesota Wild 5, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 26 | 16 | 27 | 519 |
| WSH | 010 | 06 | 110 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 1:37MINTyson JostGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 13:07MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 0:30MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 10:28WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Deflected, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 17:15MINNicolas DeslauriersENAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.79 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:03WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:56WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:22MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:29
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:54
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 3–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Jost8:33
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Bjugstad – Duhaime8:50
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:30
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:32
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Kulikov14:19
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson7:45
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Mantha10:45
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Wilson – Sheary6:02
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Dowd – Larsson – Hathaway6:42
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen13:01
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk10:28
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Schultz – Orlov3:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).