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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 4, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Boston Bruins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.

CBJ winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS11011101313337
CBJ19150800222

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:31CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:32BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:52BOSCraig SmithAssists: Charlie Coyle, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:44CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. OT 1:03BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.30 xG3–2
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 5:32CBJCarson Meyer: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 6:13BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
  3. P1 14:45CBJJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:45BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 14:47BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
  6. P1 18:32CBJJakub Voracek: Misconduct10 min
  7. P1 19:24BOSNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
  8. P1 0:00BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 0:00CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 2:25CBJVladislav Gavrikov: High sticking double minor4 min
  11. P2 4:00BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
  12. P2 13:53BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 13:53CBJAndrew Peeke: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 14:22CBJSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
  15. P2 19:44BOSCraig Smith: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  16. P3 3:52CBJAndrew Peeke: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 4:39BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
48% to win52% to win
← BOS attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Kuraly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSCBJ
37Shots on goal22
3.1Expected goals1.9
51Shot attempts46
42Faceoffs won25
5Power plays5
18Penalty minutes26
15Hits24
12Blocked shots7
3Giveaways4
4Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestFoligno – Lazar – Nosek5:19

    xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1

  2. Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:08

    xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  3. Foligno – Smith – Coyle3:52

    xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Haula – Hall – Nosek2:17

    xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLindholm – McAvoy14:11

    xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1

  2. Grzelcyk – Carlo11:37

    xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1

  3. Reilly – Brown9:42

    xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. Kuraly – Bjorkstrand – Danforth8:50

    xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  2. Voracek – Bemstrom – Sillinger3:15

    xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0

  3. Gaunce – Meyer – Robinson2:02

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0

  4. Nyquist – Bemstrom – Sillinger3:42

    xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWerenski – Bean2:20

    xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  2. Gavrikov – Bean14:52

    xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0

  3. Boqvist – Christiansen8:14

    xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 1.9 xGBOS 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #416 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.99 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.

CBJ winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).