Mon, Apr 4, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 215 | 05 | 333 |
| LAK | 26 | 013 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:56LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:06LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Sean Durzi · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:03CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 14:08CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:02LAKTrevor Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:26CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:26LAKAlex Iafallo: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:56CGYMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P2 0:19LAKSean Durzi: Holding2 min
- P2 6:19CGYTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:09CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:43CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:57CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:55LAKSean Durzi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Toffoli – Mangiapane8:33
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:13
xG 0.75–0.54 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Carpenter9:27
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Coleman – Dube – Ruzicka6:50
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Tanev11:24
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:40
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov14:42
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Vilardi – Kupari – Byfield9:44
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Grundstrom – Andersson – Kaliyev4:45
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore10:34
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo11:37
xG 0.30–0.88 (26%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Spence11:58
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Durzi – Bjornfot13:30
xG 0.36–0.55 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
- Edler – Stecher13:30
xG 0.66–1.09 (38%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).