Tue, Apr 5, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Florida Panthers 7 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 412 | 112 | 00 | 635 |
| FLA | 113 | 313 | 220 | 13 | 749 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 15:21TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 0:30TORMitch MarnerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 1:07TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 2:04TORColin BlackwellAssists: Morgan Rielly, Pierre Engvall · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 8:40TORJake MuzzinAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P2 11:52FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P2 12:51FLARadko GudasSHAssists: Anton Lundell · Slap, 0.01 xG5–3
- P2 17:56FLAClaude GirouxAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 2:45FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–5
- P3 8:01FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–6
- P3 16:06TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–6
- OT 2:47FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.14 xG6–7
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:33TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:52FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P1 14:04FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:31TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 0:51FLABen Chiarot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:57TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:29FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:15TORJason Spezza: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:10FLAMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:12TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:42FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:42TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:28TORKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01FLAMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:27FLARobert Hagg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews11:09
xG 1.48–1.26 (54%)attempts 23–17goals 1–1
- Spezza – Clifford – Blackwell3:48
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev2:33
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev8:48
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Liljegren11:13
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl2:12
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl10:13
xG 0.94–1.09 (46%)attempts 17–24goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Marchment – Lundell7:27
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Giroux – Huberdeau – Bennett5:50
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Giroux – Verhaeghe – Bennett4:57
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov7:06
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Montour8:33
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Forsling11:39
xG 1.41–0.93 (60%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Montour4:12
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).