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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 5, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Minnesota Wild 2, Nashville Predators 6

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

NSH winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN113120016249
NSH3151929633

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:10NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:27MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:52NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P1 19:03NSHRyan JohansenPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P2 6:06NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
  6. P2 17:51MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 13:28NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
  8. P3 19:53NSHRyan JohansenENAssists: Philip Tomasino, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–6
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 2:21MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 2:21NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:48MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:48NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 3:15MINBrandon Duhaime: High sticking2 min
  6. P1 7:44NSHTanner Jeannot: High sticking2 min
  7. P1 10:43MINNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P1 10:43NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 13:33MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
  10. P1 14:19NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
  11. P1 18:46MINKirill Kaprizov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  12. P1 19:28NSHLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 3:24MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 3:24NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 4:01MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
  16. P2 16:06NSHLuke Kunin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  17. P2 17:11NSHAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
  18. P3 6:28NSHLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
48% to win52% to win
← MIN attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Sissons
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINNSH
49Shots on goal33
4.2Expected goals4.3
81Shot attempts56
34Faceoffs won35
6Power plays4
28Penalty minutes32
28Hits32
9Blocked shots22
8Giveaways14
4Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Minnesota Wild

Forward lines

  1. bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:41

    xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0

  2. Gaudreau – Fiala – Jost7:48

    xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

  3. Deslauriers – Bjugstad – Duhaime4:26

    xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

  4. Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek7:50

    xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Kulikov10:31

    xG 0.75–0.19 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0

  2. Brodin – Dumba4:45

    xG 0.19–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  3. Brodin – Middleton2:45

    xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg3:43

    xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  2. Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot6:13

    xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  3. Cousins – McCarron – Luff2:02

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  4. Johansen – Forsberg – Tomasino4:33

    xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBorowiecki – Lauzon5:34

    xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Josi – Lauzon2:06

    xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Josi – Carrier2:25

    xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.3 xGMIN 4.2 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #680 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.24 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

NSH winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).