Tue, Apr 5, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 13 | 011 | 221 |
| DAL | 218 | 111 | 011 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29DALMarián StudenicAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:47NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:13DALTyler SeguinAssists: Joel Hanley, John Klingberg · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 0:31NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:29DALRadek FaksaSHGWGAssists: Luke Glendening · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:29NYIMathew Barzal: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:58DALMarián Studenic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:14NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14DALJamie Benn: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 6:35NYIGrant Hutton: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Palmieri – Pageau12:10
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:13
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston7:35
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:58
xG 0.25–0.82 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson3:44
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Dobson2:30
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Hutton9:40
xG 0.40–0.73 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Studenic9:37
xG 1.65–0.30 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Radulov – Namestnikov – Kiviranta6:25
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl10:07
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:59
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Hanley14:20
xG 1.79–0.64 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 1–2
- Suter – Heiskanen19:59
xG 1.10–0.77 (59%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Harley13:08
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).