Wed, Apr 6, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Detroit Red Wings 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 017 | 213 | 335 |
| WPG | 013 | 19 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:40DETSam GagnerSHAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 6:01WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nate Schmidt, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 9:11DETMichael RasmussenGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Kyle Criscuolo · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 19:23DETSam GagnerENAssists: Pius Suter, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:13DETOskar Sundqvist: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19DETKyle Criscuolo: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53WPGMorgan Barron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:15WPGLogan Stanley: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:16WPGZachary Sanford: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:13DETAdam Erne: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVrana – Suter – Zadina9:12
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond11:26
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Veleno6:51
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Gagner – Criscuolo – Hirose5:18
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Hronek3:31
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Seider2:48
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Walman – Lindstrom9:30
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Scheifele – Ehlers11:05
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Lowry – Sanford – Appleton7:31
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Toninato – Svechnikov – Barron6:36
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Dubois10:42
xG 0.52–0.95 (35%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Pionk12:58
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:26
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:01
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).