Thu, Apr 7, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 26 | 110 | 05 | 321 |
| CAR | 012 | 27 | 313 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:25BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 4:59CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:29BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Mattias Samuelsson · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 16:32CARTeuvo TeravainenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 5:12CARJordan StaalAssists: Brett Pesce, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 11:39CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:05CARJordan StaalENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:38BUFRasmus Asplund: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:49BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:10CARMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:16CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:23CARIan Cole: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Krebs – Cozens8:48
xG 0.44–0.17 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:04
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 2–2
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons8:35
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt8:24
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 1–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Samuelsson12:44
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Bryson – Samuelsson2:20
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Bryson10:26
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:18
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:08
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Necas8:02
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Domi9:48
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Smith12:06
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo11:29
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 2–2
- Skjei – Pesce16:35
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).