Thu, Apr 7, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 117 | 16 | 13 | 441 |
| DAL | 17 | 04 | 26 | 01 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 9:46DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Marián Studenic · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:58TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mark Giordano, John Tavares · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 5:43DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 10:36TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Mitch Marner, Michael Bunting · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 17:37DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:10TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:43TORIlya Lyubushkin: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:23DALVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:28DALRyan Suter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:28DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:40TORJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:06TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:06DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews14:30
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev7:31
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf3:43
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf6:20
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Brodie15:30
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Rielly – Lyubushkin14:56
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Giordano – Holl13:35
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:28
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 18–17goals 2–1
- Benn – Seguin – Studenic11:54
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Radulov – Namestnikov – Kiviranta5:22
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl10:07
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Harley4:49
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Harley8:01
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley4:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).