Fri, Apr 8, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 312 | 03 | 07 | 322 |
| FLA | 113 | 217 | 113 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:25FLAClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 8:45BUFMark PysykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 15:35BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 9:30FLAPatric HornqvistAssists: Brandon Montour, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 14:20FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 19:22FLASam BennettGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:28FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:50BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:45BUFJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:57FLABen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:50FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:06FLAMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons9:15
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt10:52
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Eakin – Girgensons – Hinostroza2:36
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens8:26
xG 0.18–0.80 (18%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Samuelsson12:45
xG 0.26–0.82 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Miller – Bryson12:55
xG 0.13–0.90 (12%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:07
xG 0.35–1.28 (22%)attempts 12–22goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen6:29
xG 0.58–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov8:38
xG 0.59–0.17 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Marchment – Lundell8:20
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Giroux – Huberdeau – Bennett9:59
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling9:19
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Weegar9:16
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Lindbohm – Hagg8:22
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).