Fri, Apr 8, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 111 | 116 | 00 | 338 |
| STL | 112 | 06 | 29 | 11 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:23MINKevin FialaAssists: Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 10:40MINKirill KaprizovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:18MINJake MiddletonAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 4:16STLJustin FaulkAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 10:28STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:27STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Colton Parayko · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:19MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:06MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game bench2 min
- P1 10:22STLVladimir Tarasenko: Interference2 min
- P1 12:44STLNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:44MINNick Bjugstad: Embellishment2 min
- P2 3:52STLNiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Jost9:17
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:13
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:40
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Bjugstad – Duhaime7:26
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton16:35
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Goligoski – Benn12:47
xG 0.62–0.52 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Brodin18:23
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Saad12:17
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas13:36
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- MacEachern – Walker – Brown4:02
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Walker – Barbashev3:17
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Parayko13:41
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk2:28
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk15:33
xG 0.25–0.82 (24%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).