Fri, Apr 8, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 115 | 213 | 15 | 14 | 537 |
| WPG | 212 | 014 | 216 | 01 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Alex Newhook, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:32WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:35WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 3:55COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Cale Makar, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 9:11COLErik JohnsonAssists: Alex Newhook, Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:04COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 16:25WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:44WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–4
- OT 2:42COLCale MakarPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:55WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P2 17:18WPGBrenden Dillon: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:28COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:02WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:55COLNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:16COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:45WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:31
xG 1.09–1.21 (48%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor7:39
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Aube-Kubel – Sturm – Newhook8:45
xG 0.18–0.50 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 2–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Nichushkin10:32
xG 0.73–1.08 (41%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Makar – Byram14:15
xG 0.74–0.83 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Johnson – Manson3:33
xG 0.08–0.20 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar4:10
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Scheifele – Ehlers8:26
xG 1.21–0.24 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 3–1
- Lowry – Sanford – Appleton11:47
xG 1.06–0.80 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Toninato – Brooks – Barron5:39
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois13:26
xG 0.29–0.70 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Samberg10:18
xG 1.50–0.41 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:26
xG 1.52–0.94 (62%)attempts 25–17goals 1–2
- Schmidt – Pionk14:36
xG 0.29–0.65 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).