Sat, Apr 9, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 114 | 18 | 27 | 14 | 533 |
| DET | 010 | 215 | 210 | 03 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:14CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:41DETJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:21DETSam GagnerAssists: Marc Staal, Mitchell Stephens · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:01CBJCole SillingerAssists: Zach Werenski, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:04CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 12:34CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Jack Roslovic, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 15:35DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jordan Oesterle · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 16:33DETJakub VranaAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 3:19CBJJack RoslovicGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:55DETMitchell Stephens: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:02DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:03CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min
- P2 17:21DETAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21CBJAndrew Peeke: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:01DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:25DETTyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:48CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:48DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:48DETDylan Larkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Roslovic – Laine13:55
xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Gaunce – Bjorkstrand – Meyer2:29
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Danforth – Bemstrom – Robinson12:20
xG 0.43–0.58 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–3
- Voracek – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger9:54
xG 0.23–0.39 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Boqvist9:32
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Gavrikov – Bean7:38
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Bean – Christiansen2:22
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVrana – Suter – Zadina12:25
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Gagner – Erne – Stephens6:14
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Rasmussen – Veleno9:03
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond10:50
xG 0.27–0.83 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek13:06
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Lindstrom15:04
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 17–18goals 3–0
- DeKeyser – Seider12:05
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).