Sat, Apr 9, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 116 | 319 | 645 |
| PIT | 314 | 011 | 07 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 1:01WSHMarcus JohanssonUnassisted · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 7:24WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Johan Larsson, Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:34PITJeff CarterAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 19:34PITBrian BoyleAssists: Kris Letang, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 4:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 11:35WSHTom WilsonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:19WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
- P3 19:33WSHMartin FehérváryENAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.78 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:48WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:09WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P2 2:28PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 4:06PITJeff Carter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:09PITBrian Dumoulin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:35WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:35PITJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:15PITDanton Heinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:21WSHMartin Fehérváry: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Johansson – McMichael5:52
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Eller – Dowd – Larsson12:24
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Hathaway6:36
xG 0.15–0.81 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Backstrom – Wilson – Mantha13:13
xG 0.18–1.29 (12%)attempts 8–27goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen14:28
xG 1.06–0.85 (56%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk8:36
xG 0.31–0.71 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry16:35
xG 0.67–1.31 (34%)attempts 12–25goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kapanen – Rodrigues9:09
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Guentzel2:43
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blueger – Heinen7:59
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell8:35
xG 0.66–0.65 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino9:05
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:03
xG 1.16–1.03 (53%)attempts 21–19goals 2–2
- Letang – Matheson2:42
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).