Sat, Apr 9, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 1, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 110 | 012 | 131 |
| STL | 212 | 414 | 05 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21STLNick LeddyAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:10STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 4:05STLJustin FaulkAssists: Brandon Saad, David Perron · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 5:41STLJustin FaulkAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 16:57STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–5
- P2 18:41NYIGrant HuttonAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P2 19:20STLRobert ThomasAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:03NYIZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P1 9:41STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P1 14:27NYIRoss Johnston: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:41NYIMatt Martin: Bench2 min
- P3 4:36NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 8:29STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Palmieri – Pageau9:10
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:34
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Martin – Andreoff – Johnston8:41
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:44
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Hutton9:43
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Greene – Hutton2:44
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Chara – Pulock3:20
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barbashev – Kyrou11:34
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Walker – Brown – Toropchenko7:53
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas8:13
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 3–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad8:10
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Rosen14:30
xG 1.00–0.46 (69%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko12:55
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Leddy – Faulk14:14
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).