Sat, Apr 9, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 07 | 39 | 323 |
| DAL | 09 | 113 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:31DALRyan SuterPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 4:26NJDTy SmithAssists: Nico Hischier, Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 18:49NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Kevin Bahl, Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 18:59NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:20NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:24DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:53NJDA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:59DALMarián Studenic: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:10NJDPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:38NJDJesper Boqvist: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39NJDAndreas Johnsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:01DALMiro Heiskanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:54NJDAndreas Johnsson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHischier – Zetterlund – Sharangovich5:13
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Zacha – Kuokkanen – Boqvist2:31
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Tatar – Zacha – Mercer5:19
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Boqvist – Zetterlund4:38
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Bahl6:31
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Bahl5:33
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Smith6:12
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson14:17
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Studenic8:21
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Radulov – Namestnikov – Peterson5:49
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl9:08
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:00
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Hanley8:45
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Suter – Heiskanen15:17
xG 0.44–1.16 (27%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).