Sat, Apr 9, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 4, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 210 | 19 | 110 | 429 |
| SEA | 18 | 09 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Slap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 5:00SEAKarson KuhlmanAssists: Morgan Geekie, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:43CGYTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 8:39CGYMichael StonePPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Andrew Mangiapane · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 18:33CGYTyler ToffoliENAssists: Dillon Dube, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 6:39SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42CGYMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P2 13:49CGYTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:47SEACarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:31SEAVince Dunn: Interference2 min
- P3 10:27SEAWill Borgen: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:59CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:06CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Coleman – Dube6:03
xG 0.54–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane8:21
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Carpenter5:54
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:31
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson11:17
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Stone – Zadorov12:31
xG 0.77–0.68 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – Mackey12:12
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Donskoi – Sprong6:19
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Rask – Gourde – Lind9:15
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McCann – Geekie – Kuhlman7:27
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Eberle – Wennberg – Donato9:03
xG 0.07–0.48 (13%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Fleury11:06
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:45
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen9:36
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).