Tue, Apr 12, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 011 | 19 | 128 |
| MIN | 19 | 310 | 14 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37MINFrederick GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 3:01MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:40MINKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 13:12MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
- P3 3:22MINRyan HartmanAssists: Jordie Benn, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–5
- P3 5:39EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:34EDMWarren Foegele: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:35EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:49MINMatt Boldy: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:50MINBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:15EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:15EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:15MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:15EDMEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:15MINRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:06MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:37
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Kassian – McDavid4:41
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Yamamoto – McLeod3:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kassian – McLeod3:30
xG 0.15–0.18 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse14:48
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard3:34
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Kulak13:02
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:31
xG 0.89–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:02
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 3–14goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Jost – Duhaime3:32
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Fiala – Duhaime3:38
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Brodin15:34
xG 0.89–0.29 (76%)attempts 14–18goals 3–0
- Goligoski – Benn15:28
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:51
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).