Tue, Apr 12, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 114 | 17 | 211 | 432 |
| DET | 011 | 17 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:55OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Josh Norris, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:27DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 15:32OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 18:55OTTTim StützleENAssists: Nick Holden · Backhand, 0.79 xG3–1
- P3 19:46OTTTim StützleENAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:51DETFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P1 15:50OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:10OTTNick Holden: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:16OTTNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:40OTTErik Brannstrom: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 13:43DETSam Gagner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Norris – Tkachuk8:59
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Gaudette – Gambrell7:56
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Brown – White – Kelly8:27
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Formenton – Batherson – Stützle10:36
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Zaitsev10:12
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Holden – Brannstrom13:45
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Hamonic17:27
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Gagner – Erne – Stephens5:27
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:56
xG 0.47–0.57 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Sundqvist – Rasmussen – Veleno7:58
xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vrana – Suter – Zadina9:40
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek14:40
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom2:16
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Seider13:35
xG 0.08–0.44 (15%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).