Tue, Apr 12, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 07 | 16 | 221 |
| WSH | 310 | 214 | 413 | 937 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Conor Sheary, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:24WSHT.J. OshieAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 12:00PHIJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 13:16WSHMartin FehérváryGWGAssists: Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 6:39WSHLars EllerAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 15:30WSHConor ShearyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 3:31WSHMatt IrwinAssists: Justin Schultz, Johan Larsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 5:59WSHLars EllerAssists: Anthony Mantha, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 12:42WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Justin Schultz, Matt Irwin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–8
- P3 16:26PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Bobby Brink · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–8
- P3 17:32WSHJohan LarssonPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Nic Dowd · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–9
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:00PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:45WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:05PHICam York: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:43PHIJoel Farabee: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:43PHIJoel Farabee: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:43PHIJoel Farabee: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:43WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:43PHITravis Konecny: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:40WSHJustin Schultz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:00WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Frost – Brink4:27
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Thompson – Brown – Cates7:41
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
- Laughton – Konecny – Tippett4:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Hayes – Farabee3:15
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York9:33
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–2
- Connauton – York3:38
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Connauton – Ristolainen2:09
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary11:49
xG 0.92–0.41 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Dowd – Larsson – Hathaway9:44
xG 0.51–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Johansson9:38
xG 0.13–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Wilson – Mantha8:16
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry14:58
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Schultz – Irwin14:32
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 3–1
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk13:21
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).