Tue, Apr 12, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 06 | 012 | 025 |
| DAL | 07 | 012 | 110 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 15:10DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:23TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:06TBLNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:06DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:35DALVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:07TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:49DALEsa Lindell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:09DALEsa Lindell: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:27TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel7:33
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Colton6:56
xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:38
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point8:53
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:49
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote4:53
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:27
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:45
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Seguin – Peterson – Studenic2:29
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Seguin – Robertson2:28
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov7:04
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen14:43
xG 1.12–0.50 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley8:02
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:31
xG 0.45–0.94 (32%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).