Sun, May 1, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Seattle Kraken 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 010 | 314 | 06 | 330 |
| WPG | 18 | 05 | 314 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Jansen Harkins · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 5:55SEAAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Jared McCann, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 12:24SEADaniel SprongAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:19SEARiley SheahanAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 4:49WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 7:16WPGDominic ToninatoAssists: Jansen Harkins, Morgan Barron · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 9:05WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mason Appleton · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 5:33WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:36SEAKole Lind: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Donskoi – Wennberg13:01
xG 0.75–0.51 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- Gourde – McCann – Kuhlman9:32
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Rask – Donato – Beniers11:11
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Sprong – Lind – Geekie13:39
xG 0.59–1.06 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Cholowski20:30
xG 1.38–0.95 (59%)attempts 22–16goals 2–1
- Larsson – Oleksiak16:27
xG 0.75–0.95 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Soucy – Borgen15:09
xG 0.35–1.08 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Sanford – Svechnikov3:12
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Barron10:21
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 2–1
- Connor – Appleton – Dubois5:30
xG 0.28–0.25 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois8:06
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey19:26
xG 1.38–0.65 (68%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Dillon – Schmidt14:58
xG 0.89–0.94 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Samberg – Pionk17:59
xG 0.67–0.78 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).