Wed, Apr 13, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 3, Colorado Avalanche 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 216 | 18 | 332 |
| COL | 414 | 29 | 312 | 935 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54COLNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Erik Johnson, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:33COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Bowen Byram, Artturi Lehkonen · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 10:15COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 10:56COLNicolas Aube-KubelGWGAssists: Alex Newhook, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 1:43LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Troy Stecher · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 10:40LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Jordan Spence, Blake Lizotte · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 13:05COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P2 18:22COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.08 xG2–6
- P3 1:18COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–7
- P3 6:11COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–8
- P3 9:52COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–9
- P3 15:09LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Jordan Spence · Snap, 0.29 xG3–9
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:51LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:42COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30LAKSean Durzi: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore11:46
xG 0.88–0.52 (63%)attempts 20–9goals 1–2
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kaliyev10:59
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Brown – Iafallo – Lizotte11:43
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Vilardi – Kupari – Byfield10:18
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi18:55
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Maatta – Spence15:05
xG 0.75–0.90 (46%)attempts 14–22goals 2–4
- Edler – Stecher14:01
xG 0.56–0.93 (38%)attempts 18–20goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:14
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Nichushkin9:09
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Aube-Kubel – Sturm – Newhook14:04
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor9:19
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:48
xG 0.95–0.70 (57%)attempts 17–18goals 3–1
- Johnson – Byram13:28
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Manson – Girard13:58
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).