Thu, Apr 14, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 315 | 09 | 332 |
| BOS | 216 | 08 | 018 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36BOSMarc McLaughlinAssists: Nick Foligno, Curtis Lazar · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:01BOSJesper FrodenAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 0:47OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 9:30OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:27OTTTim StützlePPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:15OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:20OTTTravis Hamonic: Elbowing2 min
- P2 1:22BOSMarc McLaughlin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:39BOSMike Reilly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:46BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:45OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:56BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:24OTTColin White: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:15BOSCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P3 15:27BOSTomas Nosek: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFormenton – Batherson – Stützle6:20
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – White3:04
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:44
xG 0.23–0.15 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Watson – Gaudette – Gambrell4:29
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub13:15
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Hamonic11:09
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Holden – Zaitsev11:39
xG 0.09–0.72 (11%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Lazar – McLaughlin6:48
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:33
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Haula – Hall – Froden10:32
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Coyle – Nosek5:08
xG 0.10–0.41 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – McAvoy10:31
xG 0.92–0.52 (64%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:42
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Brown9:41
xG 0.50–0.42 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).