Thu, Apr 14, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 39 | 210 | 628 |
| BUF | 17 | 113 | 017 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:36STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:17STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 4:20BUFAlex TuchAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:18STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 12:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Torey Krug, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 6:18STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 17:32STLVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.54 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:19BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:50STLBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:08BUFCody Eakin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:05BUFOwen Power: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:24STLIvan Barbashev: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas8:40
xG 0.91–0.69 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 3–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad10:37
xG 0.85–0.69 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou8:53
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Walker – Brown – Toropchenko7:57
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug2:33
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk15:48
xG 0.94–0.84 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Leddy2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson9:18
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons8:27
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt10:37
xG 0.82–0.83 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens10:27
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Fitzgerald9:57
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin10:13
xG 0.87–0.73 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power6:02
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).