Thu, Apr 14, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 113 | 03 | 11 | 327 |
| DAL | 013 | 115 | 18 | 00 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14MINKevin FialaAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 6:02DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 11:36MINKevin FialaSHAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 0:55DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:40MINFrederick GaudreauGWGAssists: Marc-Andre Fleury, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:42MINNick Bjugstad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:55MINDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Jost7:36
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Bjugstad – Duhaime8:58
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy11:25
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov15:02
xG 0.47–0.84 (36%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Brodin19:53
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Benn14:08
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:54
xG 0.15–0.88 (15%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:28
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl10:57
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov9:44
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Radulov – Peterson – Studenic4:25
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen17:40
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Hanley14:21
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:48
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).