Thu, Apr 14, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 49 | 15 | 625 |
| CGY | 111 | 013 | 012 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:09VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Mattias Janmark · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:45VGKEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 8:24VGKMichael AmadioAssists: William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 9:04VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Mattias Janmark, Ben Hutton · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 17:36VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
- P3 18:19VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.13 xG6–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:38VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:30CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:30VGKKeegan Kolesar: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 16:56CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:45CGYMilan Lucic: Holding2 min
- P2 10:59VGKWilliam Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:15CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Clipping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25CGYMilan Lucic: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:27VGKZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson8:56
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Karlsson – Amadio7:45
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Marchessault – Janmark – Eichel10:02
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Leschyshyn7:14
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Whitecloud14:36
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton11:46
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:59
xG 0.59–0.86 (40%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Toffoli – Coleman2:11
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Dube5:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Tkachuk – Dube4:01
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane5:17
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:36
xG 0.98–0.48 (67%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:23
xG 0.75–0.91 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–3
- Tanev – Kylington14:53
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).