Fri, Apr 15, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 1, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 018 | 15 | 131 |
| FLA | 213 | 213 | 217 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Claude Giroux, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 4:47FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 2:55FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 16:22FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
- P3 1:08WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Paul Stastny, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 1:54FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 7:00FLAMaxim MaminAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:01FLACarter Verhaeghe: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:00FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:43WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P2 0:50FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:33FLAAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00WPGMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Sanford – Dubois – Barron4:22
xG 0.11–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Dubois8:52
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Connor – Appleton4:26
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Svechnikov7:22
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Morrissey19:09
xG 1.22–1.46 (45%)attempts 17–21goals 0–2
- Schmidt – Pionk13:55
xG 0.51–1.19 (30%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
- Dillon – Samberg13:03
xG 0.23–1.25 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Huberdeau – Bennett11:04
xG 1.31–0.28 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Hornqvist – Mamin – Luostarinen6:59
xG 1.06–0.33 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Marchment2:38
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Mamin – Lundell3:16
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg11:33
xG 1.18–0.27 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Weegar12:52
xG 1.39–0.78 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Gudas – Forsling2:27
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).