Sat, Apr 16, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 013 | 012 | 014 | 039 |
| EDM | 110 | 016 | 310 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:26EDMKris RussellGWGAssists: Zack Kassian, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 0:35EDMCody CeciAssists: Darnell Nurse, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 5:16EDMWarren FoegeleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–3
- P3 15:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsSHAssists: Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.45 xG0–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:22EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:33VGKZach Whitecloud: Holding2 min
- P3 6:08EDMZach Hyman: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:43EDMZack Kassian: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Janmark2:12
xG 0.40–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Eichel2:29
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Roy2:40
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Janmark – Eichel7:57
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton12:56
xG 1.06–0.33 (76%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo3:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Martinez – Theodore3:23
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:45
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod2:02
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan2:55
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele2:36
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Kulak5:38
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Bouchard15:29
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Russell – Barrie3:20
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).