Sat, Apr 16, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 19 | 09 | 124 |
| BOS | 211 | 05 | 013 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49BOSTrent FredericAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 2:01BOSErik HaulaGWGAssists: Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 5:38PITDanton HeinenAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:30PITMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P2 9:33BOSNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:52PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:09BOSMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:45
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Heinen9:05
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel2:02
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Kapanen – Rodrigues5:27
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson10:20
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Letang – Matheson18:50
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Marino12:40
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic8:54
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Haula – Hall – Froden8:41
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk12:28
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lazar – McLaughlin6:11
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Carlo15:10
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Forbort – Clifton9:52
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy16:31
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).