Sat, Apr 16, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 8, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 318 | 416 | 841 |
| MTL | 015 | 29 | 28 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23WSHNic DowdAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Anthony Mantha · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:56MTLJake EvansAssists: Christian Dvorak, David Savard · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:03WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Lars Eller, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 8:37WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 8:51MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Jeff Petry, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 15:36WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 2:22MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 3:08WSHGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Nic Dowd, Johan Larsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 4:30WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 9:50WSHJustin SchultzPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–3
- P3 14:53MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.06 xG7–4
- P3 16:35WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Deflected, 0.12 xG8–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:11MTLDavid Savard: Holding2 min
- P1 13:04WSHJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:47MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:47WSHNicklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18MTLMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:04MTLCole Caufield: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:42MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:12WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:24MTLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:44MTLMichael Pezzetta: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 19:05MTLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:05WSHAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson5:08
xG 0.57–0.10 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Dowd – Larsson – Hathaway9:10
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Eller – Johansson – Sheary4:41
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Johansson5:15
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov5:23
xG 0.75–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Orlov – Jensen9:28
xG 0.95–0.40 (71%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry3:44
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Pezzetta – Poehling6:36
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Pitlick8:08
xG 0.37–0.38 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dvorak11:27
xG 0.25–0.68 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield11:08
xG 0.80–1.35 (37%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Savard – Romanov15:58
xG 1.34–1.31 (50%)attempts 23–20goals 2–2
- Petry – Edmundson13:43
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Wideman – Schueneman12:23
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).