Sat, Apr 16, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 5, St. Louis Blues 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 014 | 113 | 49 | 00 | 536 |
| STL | 19 | 311 | 19 | 11 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Nathan Walker, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 1:41MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:24STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Colton Parayko, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 6:52STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 13:38STLBrandon SaadAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 3:09MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 4:41MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 9:15STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 14:00MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–5
- P3 14:58MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–5
- OT 0:56STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:54STLRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:54MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:12STLNick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P1 14:49STLNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P2 4:52MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:12MINKevin Fiala: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:31MINNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31MINNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:07MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:07STLTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:02STLRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Bjugstad – Duhaime6:57
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Jost6:04
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:49
xG 0.58–0.64 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 3–1
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy8:49
xG 0.40–0.79 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton13:28
xG 0.97–0.73 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Brodin4:44
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Benn – Kulikov3:35
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Walker – Barbashev8:00
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad9:51
xG 0.50–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas7:13
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Joshua – Brown – Kyrou7:16
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Scandella2:13
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug6:41
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).