Sat, Apr 16, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 315 | 111 | 433 |
| COL | 27 | 315 | 215 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Alex Newhook, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 10:48COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 1:56COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 2:21COLBen MeyersAssists: Logan O'Connor, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 3:02CARJordan StaalAssists: Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 8:44CARJordan StaalAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 11:17COLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P2 13:33CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Martinook, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 4:08COLMikko RantanenAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 6:28CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–6
- P3 11:43COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:25COLJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:15CARNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13COLJack Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:40CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:58CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 4:08CARNino Niederreiter: Abusive language10 min
- P3 6:10COLNico Sturm: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:06CARMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:36CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast8:14
xG 0.67–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Martinook – Aho – Jarvis2:56
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Svechnikov2:45
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Domi – Necas – Kotkaniemi3:01
xG 0.09–0.07 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Slavin – DeAngelo15:26
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce15:45
xG 0.80–1.10 (42%)attempts 18–15goals 2–2
- Cole – Bear13:17
xG 0.38–0.85 (31%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:08
xG 1.23–0.55 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- Aube-Kubel – Sturm – Newhook8:46
xG 0.85–0.22 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers8:04
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Compher – Lehkonen10:24
xG 0.07–0.57 (11%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:41
xG 1.29–0.57 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Manson – Girard14:09
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Johnson – Manson2:51
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).