Sun, Apr 17, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 214 | 116 | 540 |
| PHI | 117 | 18 | 110 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16PHIKevin HayesAssists: Noah Cates, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:36BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:34BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 1:20PHINoah CatesAssists: Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–2
- P2 9:43BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 14:22BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 14:07PHIZack MacEwenAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.39 xG4–3
- P3 19:28BUFTage ThompsonENAssists: Jeff Skinner, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:43PHIKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:07BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:44PHITravis Sanheim: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Hinostroza – Bjork12:13
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Tuch – Mittelstadt – Krebs11:47
xG 0.77–0.55 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson9:37
xG 1.33–2.02 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 1–3
- Okposo – Asplund – Cozens9:47
xG 0.17–0.89 (16%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin17:33
xG 2.16–1.19 (65%)attempts 26–18goals 2–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson10:32
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power2:41
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Konecny – Cates10:51
xG 1.41–1.02 (58%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Frost – Farabee – Brink9:23
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Tippett10:33
xG 1.08–1.15 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Thompson – Lindblom – MacEwen7:09
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov15:27
xG 1.69–1.06 (62%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
- Connauton – Zamula10:19
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Connauton – Attard4:09
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).