Sun, Apr 17, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 8, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 716 | 07 | 833 |
| NSH | 113 | 113 | 110 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16NSHNick CousinsAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 17:41STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:11STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 4:24STLCalle RosenAssists: Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 9:29STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 12:10STLCalle RosenAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.06 xG5–1
- P2 12:49STLNathan WalkerAssists: Logan Brown, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.24 xG6–1
- P2 16:27STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Calle Rosen · Snap, 0.10 xG7–1
- P2 18:47NSHLuke KuninAssists: Nick Cousins, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG7–2
- P2 19:13STLJordan KyrouAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.09 xG8–2
- P3 12:09NSHDante FabbroAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.07 xG8–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:35NSHMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:20STLDakota Joshua: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:45STLVladimir Tarasenko: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Joshua – Brown10:55
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad12:13
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas12:01
xG 0.72–0.81 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 3–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou12:59
xG 0.63–0.91 (41%)attempts 11–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Rosen10:42
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 4–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug9:16
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Rosen4:26
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:24
xG 1.17–0.72 (62%)attempts 22–11goals 1–4
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin12:04
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Glass – Tolvanen – Tomasino8:17
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Trenin2:13
xG 0.12–0.44 (22%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning13:24
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Josi – Carrier2:17
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Benning2:20
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).