Sun, Apr 17, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 215 | 19 | 00 | 430 |
| MIN | 211 | 16 | 110 | 11 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04MINDmitry KulikovAssists: Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:29MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 9:38SJSRudolfs BalcersAssists: Thomas Bordeleau, Noah Gregor · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 1:19SJSMatt NietoAssists: Nick Bonino, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 6:37MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 11:11SJSNoah GregorAssists: Brent Burns, Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 1:37SJSNick BoninoSHAssists: Tomas Hertl, Nicolas Meloche · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 8:54MINKevin FialaAssists: Jordie Benn, Frederick Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 1:05MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:12MINNick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:53SJSScott Reedy: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:00SJSScott Reedy: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:37MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:27MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:55SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23SJSTimo Meier: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBalcers – Gregor – Bordeleau8:02
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Bonino – Couture – Nieto10:49
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hertl – Meier – Dahlen9:39
xG 0.03–0.28 (9%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Chmelevski – Reedy – Weatherby5:27
xG 0.06–0.47 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro17:11
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Vlasic – Meloche3:23
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Meloche – Hatakka8:32
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy9:42
xG 1.00–0.09 (92%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Foligno – Bjugstad – Eriksson Ek9:48
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Duhaime – Dewar7:34
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:20
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn12:26
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 2–1
- Kulikov – Brodin13:31
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Middleton3:24
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).