Mon, Apr 18, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New Jersey Devils 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 06 | 210 | 328 |
| VGK | 010 | 116 | 118 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54NJDNathan BastianAssists: Michael McLeod, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 17:37VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 3:14NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Nathan Bastian, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 7:57NJDJesper BoqvistGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 18:46VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 15:36NJDTy Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 2:27VGKJake Leschyshyn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bastian – McLeod8:51
xG 1.48–0.69 (68%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Zetterlund11:57
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Boqvist – Sharangovich9:45
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Mercer9:39
xG 0.36–1.12 (24%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Bahl13:21
xG 1.24–0.89 (58%)attempts 18–19goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Severson2:20
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Bahl3:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Janmark – Amadio9:06
xG 0.53–0.00 (99%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Pacioretty – Stephenson11:40
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Stone – Marchessault – Eichel14:52
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Leschyshyn6:44
xG 0.51–1.24 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore3:25
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton12:28
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore13:36
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).