Tue, Apr 19, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 316 | 110 | 431 |
| TBL | 015 | 213 | 113 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:20DETOskar SundqvistAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 6:34DETJakub VranaAssists: Filip Zadina, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:17DETLucas RaymondUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 9:47TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 0:43TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 5:09DETJakub VranaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:00DETTyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28TBLErik Cernak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:30DETMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:05TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Veleno – Raymond12:00
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Vrana – Suter – Zadina9:21
xG 1.05–0.63 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Rasmussen11:02
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Lindstrom11:11
xG 1.19–0.57 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Seider11:15
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Hronek11:14
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare8:20
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Colton10:40
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Kucherov – Paul – Point10:21
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel7:57
xG 0.31–1.08 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:25
xG 1.08–0.53 (67%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:49
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Hedman2:23
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).