Tue, Apr 19, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 217 | 06 | 11 | 335 |
| STL | 18 | 19 | 05 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:49STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:33BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–1
- P2 9:44BOSTaylor HallAssists: Derek Forbort, Erik Haula · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 19:57STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 0:48BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:40STLNathan Walker: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:49BOSMike Reilly: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:11BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:15STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:15BOSCurtis Lazar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:00BOSDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:34STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic10:59
xG 0.93–0.41 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:29
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Haula – Hall – Lazar9:26
xG 0.54–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nosek – McLaughlin9:17
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo12:17
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Reilly – McAvoy10:58
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Forbort – McAvoy2:20
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barbashev – Kyrou14:34
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Walker – Joshua – Brown6:33
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:02
xG 0.25–0.90 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad9:51
xG 0.30–1.15 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Leddy2:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk13:18
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug8:46
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).