Wed, Apr 20, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 111 | 011 | 236 |
| EDM | 219 | 221 | 110 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 6:17EDMDerek RyanAssists: Ryan McLeod, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 11:39DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:06DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 12:39EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 18:00EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:57EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:46DALEsa Lindell: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:28EDMZack Kassian: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:40EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:09
xG 1.04–0.55 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl8:30
xG 0.04–0.55 (7%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Radulov – Benn – Studenic6:20
xG 0.08–0.61 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Seguin – Gurianov – Peterson8:20
xG 0.20–0.77 (21%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hakanpää – Lindell2:38
xG 0.00–0.05 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Heiskanen2:28
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley7:03
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – Yamamoto14:48
xG 1.35–0.38 (78%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Kane – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:14
xG 1.06–0.28 (79%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan5:31
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Bouchard13:16
xG 1.34–0.29 (82%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Barrie – Kulak5:10
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Barrie5:02
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).