Wed, Apr 20, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 18 | 17 | 00 | 328 |
| VGK | 18 | 09 | 212 | 11 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 13:51VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 2:57WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 2:05VGKEvgenii DadonovAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 2:54VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 13:36WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:09VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:40WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:57VGKEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:31WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:05
xG 0.92–0.15 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Sheary11:59
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Oshie – Eller – Mantha9:58
xG 0.55–0.80 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Dowd – Larsson – Hathaway9:35
xG 0.08–0.68 (10%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen18:10
xG 1.26–0.56 (69%)attempts 15–21goals 2–1
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk2:51
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk9:02
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Janmark – Amadio8:40
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Amadio4:20
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Leschyshyn8:52
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson4:18
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Theodore10:22
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo3:04
xG 0.03–0.06 (28%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton7:06
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).