Thu, Apr 21, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 16 | 012 | 230 |
| FLA | 37 | 110 | 110 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08DETSam GagnerAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:19FLANoel AcciariAssists: Brandon Montour, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:53FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 19:39FLAMason MarchmentGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 6:15DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Pius Suter, Gustav Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 16:05FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mason Marchment, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 3:50FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:31FLANoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:33DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:22DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:22DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:22FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:22FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:25DETOskar Sundqvist: Slashing5 min · PPG
- P3 0:25DETOskar Sundqvist: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:11DETMoritz Seider: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Vrana – Suter8:19
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Veleno – Raymond10:58
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Rasmussen5:47
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Lindstrom2:15
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Walman – Hronek2:11
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Hronek10:22
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Huberdeau – Barkov3:14
xG 0.49–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Duclair – Reinhart – Bennett2:02
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Reinhart7:53
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Marchment – Lundell8:41
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling9:51
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Weegar – Carlsson2:26
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Montour2:10
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).