Thu, Apr 21, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 310 | 210 | 528 |
| NJD | 010 | 111 | 110 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:53BUFKyle OkposoSHAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 12:40BUFAlex TuchSHAssists: Victor Olofsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 17:58BUFRasmus DahlinGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 19:52NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Michael McLeod, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 4:59NJDNikita OkhotiukAssists: Janne Kuokkanen, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 8:33BUFOwen PowerAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 16:03BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.20 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:20BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:08BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:37NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:56BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:01NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:10BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Asplund – Cozens12:27
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Tuch – Mittelstadt – Krebs9:22
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:07
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Girgensons – Hinostroza – Bjork8:04
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson10:38
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power13:57
xG 0.63–0.67 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin15:56
xG 0.58–0.85 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Kuokkanen – Zetterlund8:42
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- Bratt – Hischier – Sharangovich13:05
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Bastian – McLeod7:55
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Tatar – Boqvist – Mercer9:00
xG 0.40–0.58 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Okhotiuk14:36
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Bahl14:25
xG 0.82–0.66 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Severson – Graves15:38
xG 0.69–0.86 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).