Thu, Apr 21, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
New York Rangers 6, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 39 | 29 | 15 | 623 |
| NYI | 08 | 110 | 211 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43NYRAndrew CoppAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:48NYRAndrew CoppAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 18:13NYRAndrew CoppAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 0:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 17:15NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–1
- P2 19:07NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 2:06NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 12:53NYRRyan ReavesAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 13:22NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Noah Dobson, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 16:54NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:57NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:45NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Copp – Panarin10:24
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 3–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano12:26
xG 0.90–0.53 (63%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney12:48
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière11:14
xG 0.04–0.52 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren17:19
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller18:55
xG 0.55–0.66 (46%)attempts 19–18goals 2–2
- Braun – Schneider14:47
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Palmieri – Barzal11:51
xG 0.76–0.46 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Bellows – Koivula – Wahlstrom9:51
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston11:17
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson12:35
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson18:52
xG 1.17–0.71 (62%)attempts 22–13goals 2–2
- Aho – Dobson2:20
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Greene – Aho11:23
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).