Fri, Apr 22, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 112 | 116 | 337 |
| EDM | 08 | 410 | 29 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Bowen Byram, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 2:41EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:03EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 4:18COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 8:19EDMEvander KaneAssists: Duncan Keith, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 14:20EDMEvander KaneGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 10:45EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Evander Kane, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 18:20COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:47EDMKris RussellENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:56COLKurtis MacDermid: Holding2 min
- P1 12:15EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:59EDMZack Kassian: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:47EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:42EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:00EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 7:27EDMKailer Yamamoto: Holding2 min
- P3 7:27COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:51EDMZack Kassian: Bench2 min
- P3 18:42COLArtturi Lehkonen: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:42EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Helm – O'Connor4:35
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:41
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Kadri – Compher – Lehkonen5:43
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram8:10
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Manson4:02
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Makar3:56
xG 0.15–0.35 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl5:35
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele2:39
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McLeod4:22
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto10:45
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Bouchard12:06
xG 0.79–0.33 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Russell – Ceci5:32
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Russell – Barrie2:50
xG 0.06–0.03 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).