Sat, Apr 23, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 27 | 316 | 215 | 738 |
| DET | 19 | 112 | 04 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:44PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 15:18PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 16:36DETJakub VranaPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 0:17DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Thomas Greiss · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:44PITRickard RakellGWGAssists: Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 11:37PITKris LetangAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 16:23PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
- P3 5:38PITDanton HeinenAssists: Kris Letang, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–2
- P3 19:34PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jason Zucker, Chad Ruhwedel · Slap, 0.07 xG7–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:55PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust12:46
xG 1.10–0.32 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:53
xG 1.00–0.48 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Carter – Kapanen – Heinen10:18
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Rodrigues8:50
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel15:18
xG 1.05–0.04 (96%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:57
xG 1.52–0.83 (65%)attempts 23–14goals 3–1
- Pettersson – Marino16:27
xG 0.67–0.35 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Veleno – Raymond14:36
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Barber – Stephens – Hirose6:51
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Gagner – Vrana – Suter12:19
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Erne – Rasmussen12:09
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Hronek14:39
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Hronek3:06
xG 0.00–0.14 (3%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Hronek2:33
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).